MobileBizBuzz

May 12, 2010

Something Sneaky This Way Comes

Release the Kraken! Scratch that. Just a minute here…um, uh…OK, let’s try this again. Look out for Android! I know, I know…that’s not nearly as dramatic as commanding the release of the mythical Kraken, but it’s certainly something those of us in the industry should heed.

If I were to ask almost anybody on the street what the most popular smartphone is today, I bet that 9 out of 10 people would say the iPhone. And why not? There are several reasons to think that:

  1. Apple has smartphone market share that is second only to RIM (BlackBerry).
  2. Apple invented the whole App Store concept as we all now know it, and it boasts over 200,000 applications.
  3. Apple ships a lot of phones. According to  Canalys, over 25 million iPhones were shipped in 2009 alone.

Now let’s change the question a bit. What if I were to ask what the most popular operating system is for a smartphone? Admittedly, the average person does not think about smartphones in this way, but the average application developer does. The answer to this question would not be too surprising for the most part. According to data just released by NPD Group, RIM still leads in this game with 36% of all smartphones sold in the US in the first quarter of 2010 running the BlackBerry OS. It probably also wouldn’t surprise anybody to know that Apple came in at 21% in the same study. Very impressive for a company that has essentially a couple of different flavors of the same smartphone. And remember, in the US Apple only runs on one carrier…AT&T.

There was a bit of a surprise in this most recent data though, and that was Android. Android is the open OS backed by Google. Like BlackBerrys, Android devices run on all the carriers and come in a variety of shapes and sizes. Unlike BlackBerrys, Android devices are made by several manufacturers including the likes of Motorola and HTC. Here’s the surprising part…in the first quarter of 2010, 28% of all smartphones sold in the US were Android devices.  That’s right, there are now more Android devices being sold in the US than there are iPhones being sold in the US.  And guess what else. Android Marketplace (the Android App Store), now has over 50,000 applications listed on it.

Not only does Android have this type of momentum, but it has other things going for it:

  1. Many of the newest and slickest devices are Android devices. For instance, this summer Sprint and HTC will introduce the first WiMAX phone and it will be an Android device.
  2. AT&T just started offering Android devices in the last month or so. That means Android devices have lots of room to grow with AT&T subscribers.
  3. With Android 2.1, Android devices are starting to surpass some of the capabilities of the iPhone.

This doesn’t mean we should all sell our Apple stock. Far from it. So far Apple continues to innovate and make some interesting decisions in the market. Couple that with well designed devices, and a powerful brand, and Apple will continue to be a leader in the smartphone market. At least for the time being. But don’t count out Android. Android isn’t making as much noise as Apple, but they are quietly making their presence know in a big way in the market.

April 28, 2010

Sprint: A Marathon Until iDEN Purge

Filed under: Industry News — Tags: , Clint @ 8:57 am
Sprint (NYSE: S) is up five percent on heavy volume today with their earnings announcement looking relatively positive.  The company’s net loss of subscribers for the quarter was 75,000, which is an improvement.  If you look into the details of the erosion of customer base, there’s a big number that jumps out at you.  iDEN, the old Nextel customers, fell by 447,000.

Hesse is doing the right thing.  iDEN was an aging technology with one feature, push-to-talk, when Sprint acquired Nextel.  Either entice those Nextel customers to migrate to CDMA or give them a super-size option, 4G, and the new HTC smartphone launching this summer.  We can live with short term negative net loss of subscribers.  Just leave the iDEN network and the ghosts of the acquisition behind.

NYSE: S, May 2009-Present

April 21, 2010

CTIA Rebrands Show

Filed under: Industry News,Mobile Apps,Mobile in SMB — Tags: Mike @ 2:52 pm

I saw an article today in Wireless Week that CTIA will be rebranding its fall show. Those of you who frequent MobileBizBuzz will know that I normally attend the CTIA shows and do a few posts afterwards about the trends I saw while there. CTIA actually has both a spring and a fall show each year, each having a different focus. Both are well attended, with the fall show being the smaller of the two still drawing 15,000+ attendees. In my opinion, these shows represent the best places to go to understand where the wireless industry is going overall, as well as what major trends currently have the industry’s attention.

It’s not groundbreaking news that the fall show has been rebranded. This has happened a couple of times before in its 15 year history. What is groundbreaking is the fact it is being rebranded as CTIA Enterprise and Applications. In their press release, CTIA said they were making this change to reflect “the growing use of mobile technology in business and new opportunities for developers”. While many of us in the industry have been touting mobile business applications for quite some time, it is important to the mobile industry that CTIA is making this shift.

“Why is it so important?” you ask. The fundamental reason is that CTIA is a reflection of its member companies. Wireless carriers large and small, device makers, network technology providers, application developers, industry consultants, and others make up their impressive membership list. What this means is the industry as a whole is starting to understand the relevance of developing applications for the business market.  That bodes well for all of us in the business of delivering mobile applications for business, but it also bodes well for businesses who leverage mobile technology.

Now That Everyone Agrees That Mobile Apps Are Not A Fad…

Filed under: Industry NewsClint @ 2:02 pm

Analysts, industry players and media are now all agreeing that we are seeing a growing wave of supply and demand for mobile apps, and it is not a ‘fad’.  The market is poised for double digit growth for many years forward and with some interpolation of forecasts, sixty billion (60,000,000,000) apps will be downloaded from 2010 thru 2014.  What is being underanalyzed, and probably discounted, is the growth in business oriented applications.  Most articles I read, including this recent Business Week review, still refer to consumer and social related apps.  As we have seen in Internet and previous mobile product adoption cycles, consumer applications are at the front of the wave, due to their appeal to massive segments of the user base.  Then a second wave of business driven, return on investment justifiable, apps follow.

We are seeing this now at MacroSolve.  In the past week we have had restaurants, country clubs, health clubs, nursing homes, beverage distributors, oil and gas companies, marketing/promotions companies, public schools and even a zoo approach us for tools and guidance.  Our resellers are getting the same breadth and depth of potential sales volume as well.  FY2010 may well be the year of the appstore.  FY2011 may well be the year of the business app, on the appstore.

April 14, 2010

Palm: OS and $800 per Share

Filed under: Industry News,Mobile DevicesClint @ 7:50 am

It seems hard to believe that in March 2000, Palm was trading at $800, in the middle of the ‘Internet Era’.  Two years later, MacroSolve began developing mobile applications for businesses on Palm PDAs and Apple Newtons and then launched ReForm(tm) with Palm in 2003 as the first wireless data connected devices began appearing on the market.   Palm settled into a trading range of $25-$15, until disaster struck. 

The end of Palm was near when in September 2005, Palm sold off their operating system division, PalmSource, to ACCESS CO., LTD.  The infusion of cash and hope that the company would transform itself was short lived.  Palm had outsourced its user experience and engineering expertise while creating confusion and frustration in the application development community.  Starting in the second quarter of 2006, the stock slid from $23 to $14 and by 2007 year end, $6.  Game over.

The lesson learned, which has been noted by Google and Apple today, is that the value in mobility is connecting the user with meaningful applications.  Control and coordination of the operating system with the developers is the path to profitability.

April 9, 2010

Apple’s iPad for Businesses?

Filed under: Industry News,Mobile App Dev,Mobile Apps,Mobile Devices — Tags: Mike @ 1:21 pm

There has certainly been a lot of hoopla over Apple’s launch of the iPad.  Reports are they sold 300,000 of them in the first day, including those that were pre-ordered, bought in Apple stores, or sold to retailers such as Best Buy.  At a local Apple event yesterday, Apple personnel said that number had now climbed to 450,000.  Pretty impressive for a device that starts at $499 for the entry model.

I teased a couple of my friends who are huge Apple fans that it was a giant iPhone.  In fact, one of the folks I work with said when he arrived at home last night with a new iPad, his young son jumped up and down and said “It’s a giant iPhone, yay!”  But all kidding aside, I was really interested in what new niche this product might carve for itself. After all, it is an Apple product, and they have an almost fanatical following. And let’s not forget, they didn’t get that following by accident. They typically produce good products, and they do a great job marketing them.

As a few of us were playing with the new device (I could use a more sophisticated term such as “experimenting”, but let’s face it, we were “playing”), a friend of mine dropped by.  He has been developing business applications for the iPhone for some time now, and has had some success with those.  Since the announcement of the iPad, he has been working on an idea to build a more sophisticated business application for the iPad.   He dropped in to show me what he already had working.

What he showed me was really impressive. Part of that is because he’s a pretty talented guy. His iPhone apps are pretty slick as well.  But a big part of what caught my attention was what types of applications were now possible with a mobile device.  I had one of those “Aha” moments. I realized just how much of a groundbreaking platform the iPad could be serving as a platform for select business applications. It won’t be easy getting there though.

Here’s the deal. The iPad has a much larger screen than a smartphone, while still being very portable. You don’t have to wag anything along with it for it to be useful. And, you have network access. Yes I know about the WiFi problems, but Apple will fix that. The larger form factor makes it possible to put much more information on the screen at a given time, so the applications can tend to be much more sophisticated. Cool, right? Yep.

It doesn’t come without issues though. The onscreen keyboard is not something anybody will want to do much typing on. Fine, that’s a user interface design issue, right?  Right. Mobile developers tackle those issues every day.  Here’s another one for you though. Once the developer begins to put more information on the screen, the application itself tends to get more capable. It grows in scope…so much so, that it approaches the scope of more traditional business apps. I believe this means many iPad business applications will not be residing completely on the iPad itself. They will demand a server component, and likely even a component that will be accessed by more traditional computers with physical keyboards and mice.

So what does all this mean? I believe it means that traditional application developers will begin to migrate into the mobile market more quickly, at least for this form factor. That means they will need to learn all those user interface, and communication rules that mobile developers already know. It also means that strictly mobile developers will have to enlarge their thinking to incorporate non-mobile aspects of these more sophisticated applications.

Smartphones and applications on them aren’t going away. In fact, comScore predicts there will be about 65 million smartphones shipped in 2010 for North America alone. Laptops and desktop computers aren’t going away either.  What most “experts” expect to happen is that the iPad will create a new market segment. We all know that Apple is fully expecting that. No surprises on any of those points. What did surprise me, however, is I caught a glimpse of how powerful this new form factor could be for the business environment right now.

April 1, 2010

Bearish on 37% Earnings Increase?

Filed under: Industry NewsClint @ 6:47 am

RIM just announced that fourth quarter revenue rose an incredible 35% and earnings rose 37%, up to $1.27 per share.  The stock took a 1.26% hit with the news.  Is there any other industry with growth and profitability expectations higher than this?

March 30, 2010

iPhone Market Cap Blast

Filed under: Industry News,Mobile DevicesClint @ 8:53 am

With news coming out that Apple will be developing iPhones for the Verizon, Sprint and other networks besides AT&T, over $12B in market cap has shifted this morning.  Google has lost 1.5% while Apple has bounded upwards by 1.5%.

March 25, 2010

The Droid Marketshare Machine

Filed under: Industry News,Mobile DevicesClint @ 7:29 am

That crunching sound you hear is the sound of Google’s Droid smashing competitors.  Jim Patterson and Flurry released a report that shows greater initial unit sales than iPhone and an appstore that has already grown to 30,000 titles.

nexusone_day74_salescomparison1

March 24, 2010

Wireless Index Tracking Above NYSE

Filed under: Industry News — Tags: Clint @ 12:56 pm

One of the industry analysis tools that RCR Wireless magazine provides is a Wireless Index which is a basket of stocks across the wireless/mobile ecosystem.  Prior to the market crash in 2009, the index performance typically tracked above NYSE peformance, but has been slightly lagging for the last year and a half.  Over the past month, the stock market has been bullish with consistent gains on the DJIA up to the 11,000 level.  Over the same time period, the Wireless Index has performed above the NYSE, reversing the trend.

RCR Wireless Index - March 2010

RCR Wireless Index - March 2010

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