MobileBizBuzz

May 19, 2010

Global Handset Sales Above Forecast – Apps?

Filed under: Mobile Devices — Tags: , , Clint @ 8:05 am

Today’s Wall Street Journal article  reports on the rapid growth in the 1Q2010 mobile handset market, throttled by an increase of 49% in smartphone unit sales, totalling 54.3M devices.  RIM and Apple have now vaulted to the  #5 and #7 global handset volume list, where they continue to nibble away at Nokia’s massive market share.

Are apps driving the demand for these devices or are they more affordable or both?  Apple is setting the pace with approximately 200,000 apps available.  Meanwhile, RIM is lagging in this category with only 6,000 apps, but has the best mobile email in the industry.

RIM is up 1% while Apple is slightly down in their respective exchanges this morning.

March 9, 2010

A Brief History of Smartphones

Filed under: Mobile Apps,Mobile Devices — Tags: Mike @ 10:30 am

The last few years in the smartphone business has been a remarkable time, with some huge shifts in the market.  Think back to 2003, an eternity in the mobile market, and realize that the whole concept of a smartphone did not exist.  There simply wasn’t such a thing.  In fact, what is even more remarkable to me is that the company who launched the whole market segment we now know as smartphones was Palm.  That’s right. Believe it or not, Palm (and Handspring) invented what we all know as smartphones today, at least in a commercial sense.  Prior to the launch of the line of Treo products, there was nothing out there that resembled what we now know as a smartphone.

Fast forward a little to 2007.  At the end of June 2007, the smartphone market was rocked again with the introduction of the Apple iPhone. Apple, who had not previously been in the phone market, came out with a groundbreaking product. Sure, it was a smartphone, but it was one unlike anything the market had seen before. No keyboard, an amazing user interface, iTunes right on your phone, etc.  And just a year later in the summer of 2008 came the App Store. Both the device and the concept of the App Store were game changers in the market.

treo-600Now jump forward to the end of 2008, and we have the introduction of the first Android phone, built by HTC for T-Mobile, and running Google’s open source operating system, Android.  Uptake was slow, but by the Fall of 2009 several more Android phones hit the market, and the Android Marketplace rapidly grew to 20,000 titles.  As of last week all the major wireless carriers in the US have an Android offering. In fact, with the exception of AT&T, they all have multiple Android phones.  And if you haven’t used one of these devices, I can tell you that they are pretty slick.  The interface is on par with what you get from Apple. I am carrying one right now. It’s the HTC Hero from Sprint, and it’s a nice device.

So what’s the point of this little history lesson?  Well, I actually have several lessons, but let’s stick to 3 or 4 in no particular order:

  1. This market moves very quickly. For those of you who lived through the introduction of the Personal Computer in the early 80′s, you can probably still remember how quickly new products were introduced. About every 18 months, a groundbreaking new computer came up with a new processor and larger memory. That same cycle in in the smartphone world is on the order of months.
  2. Innovate or die. Palm basically invented the smartphone market. Now that same company is struggling for survival, and there is a genuine question as to whether what was once a $1.5 billion company will continue to exist.  Many people point to the fact that they never really changed their phones after that initial launch.  The Treo line of phones ran for about 6 years with no substantial changes, and now even the launch of the Pre and WebOS may not be enough to save them.
  3. Something different this way comes. I wonder quite a bit about what the next great turn of the crank will be. We’re due.  To a certain extent, the iPhone is where the Treo was a few years ago. It’s been out in the market for about 3 years, with no real substantial changes. I know, I know, you Apple fans will talk about the faster network, more memory, GPS, etc. To which I reply, “Yawn”. I am not predicting Apple is going down in flames, but this is exactly what Palm did after the launch of the Treo…small, incremental improvements. That works for a while, but not for long in a market that craves the newest gadget. In fact, I would argue the Android phones have caught the iPhone in terms of the user experience.
  4. What’s in it for business? Here we are almost a decade later, and businesses are still playing second fiddle to consumers in the smartphone market. Even RIM (the maker of BlackBerry), can’t resist the lure of the numbers represented by the consumer market. They seem to be having their own identity crisis.  Businesses, especially small businesses, have so much to gain from smartphone technology, and yet the market is only paying lip service to addressing their needs.

I am hopeful the whole smartphone market will pay attention to what has happened in its brief history. There is much to be learned. I expect they will learn, and I am eager to see what new devices, and what new business application arise in the next few years.

August 5, 2009

Razors and Razor Blades

Filed under: Industry News,Mobile Devices — Tags: , , Mike @ 10:55 am

Fierce Wireless had an interesting article about Verizon that I got a chance to read yesterday.  In the article, they note that Verizon has dropped the price on almost all of their smartphones to $99 or less with a 2 year agreement.  The speculation in the article is they are doing this to clean out their inventory in preparation for offering new devices that will be coming soon.  While I think there is validity to this claim, I think there is more to it than that.razorrazorshaving

After all, Verizon has been offering good deals on BlackBerry devices for several months with their buy one, get one free offer.  So why would they be doing this?  After all, each device they sell generally costs them more than what you pay for it.  Surprised? What many people don’t realize is that carriers like Verizon pay the manufacturer of the smartphone more than what consumers pay for the device.  They subsidize your purchase.  The iPhone was just about the only exception to this rule when it was first released.  If you recall, early purchasers of the iPhone payed $599 or $699 for the coolest smartphone on the market.  But later on, AT&T began to subsidize the price of the iPhone, and pricing to the end user dropped to $199.

Why do carriers do this?  It’s simple really, and it’s a model we are all accustomed to.  It’s all about razors and razor blades.  The maker of razor blades sell you the razor very cheaply, because they know you will buy blade refills and that is where they make their money.  It’s the same with carriers.  They subsidize the price of the phone so you have a lower entry price.  After all, on average people spend $50-$60 per month for each wireless phone.  The industry calls that ARPU (Average Revenue Per User), and it is one of a few numbers they watch very closely.  If they can make it easy for you to buy a new phone cheaply, they know you will sign up for 2 years at a run rate of $60 or so per month.  Not a bad model.

So, if you apply this same model to smartphones, you can see why it would make sense to lower prices on smartphones to get you to move to a smartphone.  It is also interesting to note that ARPU for smartphones is higher than for regular phones.  Carriers want and need us to consume more data plans, and smartphones provide a reason for us all to use more data, and not just voice.

If this whole idea sits wrong with you, like you are being tricked into something, it shouldn’t.  The more of us that use smartphones and data plans, the cheaper they become.  It’s like LCD displays.  When they originally were introduced on laptops, they were very expensive.  But as they produced more and more laptops, they refined the process and LCD displays became cheaper.  Now they are found everywhere including cell phones, GPS units, car stereos, TV’s, and the list goes on and on.  So in the long run, cheaper smartphones means more users of data services, and that means more powerful devices and more comprehensive data services for all of us.  And that’s a good thing.

May 18, 2009

The Smartphone is Dead!

Filed under: Mobile Devices — Tags: , , Mike @ 12:54 pm

smartphoneAt least that is what Forrester Research says in a report that was just released.  That’s what I read in an email that I got today from Wireless Week.  Now, if your like me, and you’re in the mobile industry, my first thought was “You’ve got to be kidding me.”  However, as it turns out this is just a sort of sensationalistic way of saying that the smartphone is taking over.

Confused?  I thought you might be.  Here’s the deal.  The report contends that the term smartphone is now passé.  The reason they give for this is that “nearly all” mid range phones now have characteristics that were once considered to be the exclusive realm of smartphones.  In other words, it’s not the smartphone that is dead, it’s the term smartphone that is dying.  It’s becoming meaningless, because all phones (or at least the vast majority) are evolving to become smart.

If you’ve read this blog before, that should not be surprising to you.  Phones are becoming more and more like PC’s in their capabilities.  What this report brings out, is that evolution is restricted to the scope of those phones we once considered smartphones.  In fact, all phones are becoming “smarter”.  From a business perspective this is exciting.  It means that as the devices evolve, we’ll have access to not only information, but also applications to help us deal with that information from just about any cell phone.

April 9, 2009

What’s a Dell To Do?

Filed under: Industry News,Mobile Devices — Tags: , , , Chris @ 1:54 pm

PalmDellLogoRumors have long circulated that Dell would be entering the smartphone market. As far as rumors go, that one seems believable. After all, they’ve gone from making personal computers out of a garage to becoming a massive manufacturer/distributor of desktop computers, laptops/notebooks, netbooks, monitors, servers, storage component, etc. They even had a (not so well receivied PDA, the Axim, in 2007). Why not get in the smartphone market now?

Well, it sounds like they have been trying to do just that. Unfortunately, the prototypes they’ve been shopping around seem to have been, well, boring. In other words, no iPhone killers. In fact, the only rumored iPhone killer that anyone is even talking about is Palm’s new Pre. So what’s a Dell to do? Wait…I have an idea! Dell should buy Palm! While that move wouldn’t guarantee Dell’s success, some analysts think it is a good idea. In fact, it may be the only reasonable way for Dell to enter the market this late in the game. Regardless, if Dell is serious about jumping in, they have one heck of a hill to climb.

What do you think? Should Dell go it alone or should they buy Palm? Here’s some more information to help you craft your thoughts:

palmdelllogoxsmallMichael Dell hints at smartphones, mobile Internet devices – InfoWorld
palmdelllogoxsmallDell’s iPhone Killer rejected by carriers as too dull – AppleInsider
palmdelllogoxsmallMore details on Dell’s supposed smartphone – CNet
palmdelllogoxsmallA Dell Smartphone Would Face Big Hurdles – Business Week
palmdelllogoxsmallPalm Pre a Bump in Dell’s Smartphone Road? – Pre Central
palmdelllogoxsmallHandoff: Why Dell Needs to Buy Palm Now – Fast Company

March 17, 2009

Blackberry: Rockin’ the Smartphone Market

Filed under: Industry News,Mobile Devices — Tags: , , , Clint @ 8:18 am

Blackberry SmartphoneThe Smartphone market is one of the areas we closely watch as it serves as a bellweather for trends on how businesses are adopting mobility.  Within this market is Nokia, RIM/Blackberry, iPhone, Windows Mobile devices, HTC, Palm and others.  What makes these devices ‘smart’ as compared to a cell phone?  In simple terms they have an operating system that allows applications to be downloaded, a wireless data connection and usually a keyboard that accomodates a lot of typing.

A leading research firm, Gartner, just released its annual report on this market.  Of the 138 million devices sold in 2008, Nokia owns 40% of the market, followed by Blackberry (~20%) and then iPhone (~10%).  Nokia is losing market share, Blackberry is up 84% (quarter over quarter) and iPhone, a new entrant, is up 111%.   What is interesting here is that Blackberry is now a $12Billion company and this growth rate is incredible for a company that size.  Blackberry’s niche is serving the business customer, which are typically email fanatics.  iPhone serves a completely different segment, entertainment driven customers.

My take on this development is that businesses can cost justify a Blackberry as a business tool.  With a new application store called App World, we will likely see this trend continue.

If you would like more detailed information on the subject, Michael Mace’s blog has some very good statitistics and observations.

February 26, 2009

No Microsoft Smartphone Coming

2009 Mobile World Congress

Steve Ballmer

After months of speculation and rumors about a new Microsoft smartphone, and months of Microsoft denying said speculation and rumors, Steve Ballmer finally made it clear that Microsoft will not release a smartphone.

Seems like a smart move as I really don’t hear a lot of people clamoring for one. Even so, many analysts and bloggers expected a 2009 release to compete with RIM/BlackBerry and Apple/iPhone.

Apple still has the device to beat and Ballmer seems to be happy to let them keep the current “mojo” in the consumer market. Ballmer’s strategy is to continue to build upon the Windows Mobile (actually now Windows Phones) platform and make it as compatible with as many devices as possible. Though not unique, this strategy is very different from Apple’s and RIM’s, whereby they both have a proprietary device and proprietary operating system. Stirring it up even more, Palm recently announced the Pre as well as a new mobile platform called webOS.

Historically, the proprietary device/OS strategy has worked for many mobile phone providers, but I believe this may be changing. From a business user’s perspective (me), the real value in “smartdevices” comes from the business applications (increasing productivity and reducing costs) that run on it. Highly restrictive access to the OS or having to develop across an endless sea of proprietary platforms makes it difficult for mobile application companies to create solutions that can run on every device. 

I would personally like to see a handful of the best OS platforms be able to run across all the devices – and carrier networks. But I won’t hold my breath just yet.

February 23, 2009

The Pendulum of Business and Consumer Applications

Those who have been in the mobile applications business since the PDA days have experienced the innovation and buying cycles many times.  When we were at Palm’s first developers conference in 1997, a majority of the attendees were developing the next biggest game beyond backgammon.  Individual or consumer based applications were a big hit until wireless data networks started working on PDAs.  The industry forgot about games and rushed to the new frontier, business applications.  The color screen was then announced, and a new wave of games and consumer apps flooded the market.  Then the ability to synchronize email shifted industry focus back to the high ARPU promises of the small and medium sized businesses and the Fortune 1000. 

Today, there are hundreds of thousands of ring tones, games, and personal applications in the market and it seems the industry has forgotten the business customer once again.  The demands of the commercial market in each of these cycles is always lagging as the business customer has higher standards (security, version control etc.) and demands some ROI for the investment.  With 100′s of millions of new Smartphone owners, the pendulum will be swinging back to the interests of the business user, and maybe sooner than we think.   ABI Research just announced that 16.5% of surveyed Smartphone users spent between $100 and $499 on applications.

That seems like an awful lot of ring tones and $1 games from the app store.  Something else is going on.  Stay tuned.

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